Final Forecast

We have spent a lot of time on our final forecast and are really proud of the end results. Thanks so much for taking the time to review it; we appreciate your feedback.

Butler Bag Forecasting Challenge Fall 2008

Forecasting Survey

Poster

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Geographic research

GEOGRAPHY

"Seattleites are even more pessimistic about the economy than national peers, Deloitte's annual survey of retail spending trends found. The survey found that 59 percent of Seattle respondents expect the economy to weaken in 2009, compared with 53 percent nationally on average"

"Seattle business people and shoppers said they have known for months that trimming spending is how people are coping. People are cancelling their gym memberships because of job losses. Seattle based Nordstrom Inc. has seen the pinch at its more than 100 stores nationwide. This is the toughest economy climate that we've been working in, in anybody's recent memory, Nordstrom spokeswoman Brooke White said."

-www.seattlepi.com

"Nordstrom cut its third-quarter earnings and sales outlook as it reported a 9.6 percent decline in same-store sales, worse thatn the 7.1 expected."

"Luxury stores such as Neiman Marcus Inc. and Saks Inc. which had seen a sales slowdown, suffered sharp drops as well-healed shoppers cut back on $600 stilettos and other luxuries."

- www.komo4.com

According to the Lifestyle market Analysis (zipcode edition), The population for Washington state in 2007 was 6,402,104 and the projected retail sales for 2o11 was 129,765,321 dollars. Residents age 18-44, which covers our target market, was the more populated group at 2,458,931 people. Ages 25 and older with a college education was 27.7%, another target market of ours.

According to www.sustainability.com, Seattle is the #3 ranked city for Sustainability. The city was #1 in energy and climate change policy and innovation. This shows that the region is a bit concerned with the environment, making the inspiration for our vegan style bag.

CONSUMER PROFILE

Single females ages 18-34 years old, when asked to rank their top ten lifestyle choices, and Fashion Clothing was the highest ranked by index according to the 2008 Lifestyle Market Analysis.

Bag Designs

We have designed a new product for Butler Bag with a low risk design. The low risk design will be very competitive, but we hope that it will introduce a new market by adding and slightly modifying the bags.

Butler Bag consists of many leather bags, so we have come up with a canvas vegan option for consumers who are concerned with animal rights and do not want a leather bag.

We have designed these bags to be marketed to a group of early professionals who want the organization of the original Butler Bag, but with new additions like larger slots/compartments for laptops or flies.

survey results

Total started survey: 96
Total completed survey: 96 (100%)

1. Are you Female or Male?
-Female 90.6%
-Male 9.4%

2. How old are you?
- 18 or younger 8.3%
- 19-24 89.6%
- 25 0r older 2.1%

3. Do you follow trends from magazines or celebrities?
- yes 14.6%
- no 28.1%
- sometimes 57.3%

4. Have you every bought a purse/bag either as a gift for someone or for yourself?
- yes 90.5%
- no 9.5%

5. When do you buy a purse/bag?
- When you need one. 69.1%
- When a new style comes out. 19.8%
- When you're bored. 28. 4%
- For a gift. 25.9%
-Other
-- If I really like/love the style
-- Never
-- When I have excess money/afford it
--When I feel a need for change
--When I see one that seems "me" or my style.

6. How often do you buy a bag?
-Once a month 0.0%
- Once every other month 8.2%
- Once a year 48.2%
- Twice a year 16.5%
- Three times a year 18.8%
- Never 8.2%
- Other
-- Depends if I like it
-- Depends if I have money
-- When my old one falls apart
-- About every two months
-- When it's for a gift
-- Once every two years
-- Once every three years

7. How much are you willing to pay for a designer purse/bag like Coach?
- $0 44.7%
- $100-$299 37.2%
- $200-$500 16.0%
- $500-$1000 1.1%
- $1000 and up 1.1%

8. How much are you willing to pay for a Louis Vuitton bag?
- $0 56.8%
- $100-$299 16.8%
- $200-$500 15.8%
- $500-$1000 10.5%
- $1000 and up 0.0%

9. Would you pay for a bag that has more function than style? Or one with more style than function?
- Function 19.1%
- Style 16.0%
- Both 64.9%

10. How much would you pay for a bag that had more function like slots and areas where you could organize your thing?
- $0-$100 61.1%
- $100-$200 26.3%
- $200-$500 12.6%
- $500-$1000 0.0%
- $1000 and up 0.0%

The survey was taken by our target range of ages 22-26. This gave us lots of information on how much our market spends on accessory products. By surveying our market, it also gave us a feel on how they perceive Butler Bag's competitors in comparison to Butler Bag's line of bags.

2010 Consumer Behavior and Consumer Profile research

consumer behavior research:

consumers purchase with the following in mind:

--comfort
--functionality
--practicality
--fashion

Comfort is increasingly important to the contemporary consumer, as fashion is no longer a reason to sacrifice comfort. Consumers demand both.

The lives of these young professionals are busy, and their days are increasingly long -- they need comfort and practicality. Fashion is an extremely important factor influencing their purchasing habits, however it is no longer the sole factor in buying decisions. Comfort and function are just as important if not slightly more important than a fashion-forward look.

consumer profile:

They frequent coffee shops such as Starbucks, those serving premium coffee. It's primarily because of the relational atmosphere and quality of the product. Marketing the lifestyle of that goes along with the coffee and the experience of buying it at Starbucks influences the loyalty of the consumer. This reflects the ideals and influences for buying of the young professionals market. Consumers of this market are looking for prestige, premium quality products and function, as coffee also helps those who need the energy it provides to get through their busy days.

Creating a fashion-forward, though practical bag that will organize and store all they need throughout the day including a laptop, notebook, wallet, keys, chapstick, etc. will give this consumer what they need and want, but do not already have. It is essentially filling a need and targeting a market Butler Bag has not previously marketed to.

Vegan bag -- eco-friendly option for eco-conscious consumer

crackled leather -- reaction against the flooding of the market of patent leather (shiny, glossy)

1986 color forecast

In 1985, DuPont's Home Furnishings Division predicted a break from pastel colors that had previously dominated the market, with bold, darker color tones coming into style for 1986.  Using more confident colors with a small amount of black to offset them created an elegant, darker, richer palette for homes in America and Europe.  

This new direction for color in 1986 reflects the broader context of society in 1986, as consumers found confidence through the stable and growing economy, increasing equality of men and women in the workforce and bombardment of confident figures in popular media.